Who woulda thunk? A disease that, I'm pretty sure, most of us had thought of as conquered, is back - with a vengence.
9,784 cases in 2003, then 18,957 cases in 2004. The worst thing is that the FDA has yet to approve a vaccination for adults, unlike Europe, which has had one for years. Think your childhood vaccination protects you? Think again.
Monday, February 28, 2005
Sunday, February 27, 2005
Two New Viruses Reported Belonging to AIDS Family
Nature seems determined to thin the human herd. Two new viruses, related to the HIV virus, but they have no idea what they will do to humans, if anything.
The thing is, these viruses are retroviruses, which means the change all by themselves, and one of them, HTLV-4, is unlike anything ever found in humans.
It's going to be an interesting year.y
The thing is, these viruses are retroviruses, which means the change all by themselves, and one of them, HTLV-4, is unlike anything ever found in humans.
It's going to be an interesting year.y
Friday, February 25, 2005
As The World Turns, It Drags Space And Time
For those of you who are interested, an article about how 'gravity' causes spacetime to be 'dragged' around objects, sort of like spinning a basketball in a puddle of oil
Of course, if Newton were right, and objects 'attracted' one another, this would never happen.As The World Turns, It Drags Space And Time
Of course, if Newton were right, and objects 'attracted' one another, this would never happen.As The World Turns, It Drags Space And Time
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Britain freezes in cold spell, hundreds of schools shut
As predicted, England, and Europe, are experiencing more dramatic weather. The Gulf Stream (part of the ocean conveyor that keeps Europe warmer than it should be) is still, as the website that monitors it says, "strikingly weak". Click on the link in the left sidebar that relates to the Gulf Stream, and you will notice that, as it starts to cross the North Atlantic, that it peters out into a maze of almost non-existent currents. I've been watching this chart for a couple of years, and never before about 4 months ago, has it stayed on 'strikingly weak'.
Back in April, 2004, NASA was remarking about the slowdown in the ocean conveyor. For months now, it's been the same refrain, and for months now, I've noted that with the large influx of fresh water that resulted from Lake Ellsmere draining into the North Atlantic and with the warming of the North Atlantic
Now, couple this is a cooling of the Southern oceans and a reduction in their salinity (link), and what you get is a reduction in the energy available to power to ocean conveyor.
It works this way normally: As water warms in the Southern ocean, it rises as it heads toward the North Atlantic. Because the salinity of the two areas is about the same, it rises smoothly (relatively), thus drawing more water with it. As it rounds Florida, heading North (the Gulf Stream), it starts dumping heat, since it is now closer to the surface and a lot warmer than the surrounding water. This salt water column, then cools off as it crosses south of Greenland, and as it now flows past Europe, it dumps the last of its heat and drops. This drop of so many billions of gallons of water acts as a 'pull' to all of that water behind it, and pushes the water in front of it. As it sinks to the ocean bottom and heads south, it carries nutrients and waste down. In the Southern ocean, even though it's at the bottom of the ocean, it starts picking up heat and starts rising, picking up more heat. And the cycle starts again.
However, if the Southern ocean is cooler, it doesn't pick up as much heat, so the water doesn't rise as fast or as powerfully. When the current finally gets to the coast of the U.S., off of Maine, it is not as warm is it previously was, so it doesn't have as much heat to give off. This leaves the northern hempishpere, and in particular, Europe, cooler, since the prevailing winds aren't picking up as much heat to distribute over Europe.
Now, couple this with the fact that the North Atlantic has more fresh water, and thus a lower salinity, and even though the water cools while going around Greenland, the fresh water is not as heavy as salt water, so it doesn't since as fast. (link to salinity article)So, like a train of a slight hill, vs. a train on a steep hill, it doesn't get going as fast downhill, and this reduces the speed of the current. As the current is reduced, and the water stays away from the bottom, as it gets to the Southern hemisphere, it is warmer than before, and this coupled with the cooler ocean, means that it doesn't warm as much - as a percentage of original temperature, so it won't rise as fast, nor will it rise as far, because it is close to the surface.
Eventually, the roller-coaster track of the current becomes level, thus ending the conveyor. This means that no warm water flows North (or very little) and Europe is subject to the might of the cold blasts from the Arctic.
This is what we are already seeing.
The conveyor, even though you don't hear much about it, is coming to a stop, and it is doing so in a time frame that scientists thought could never be.
Can you say, "Brrrr!"
Back in April, 2004, NASA was remarking about the slowdown in the ocean conveyor. For months now, it's been the same refrain, and for months now, I've noted that with the large influx of fresh water that resulted from Lake Ellsmere draining into the North Atlantic and with the warming of the North Atlantic
Now, couple this is a cooling of the Southern oceans and a reduction in their salinity (link), and what you get is a reduction in the energy available to power to ocean conveyor.
It works this way normally: As water warms in the Southern ocean, it rises as it heads toward the North Atlantic. Because the salinity of the two areas is about the same, it rises smoothly (relatively), thus drawing more water with it. As it rounds Florida, heading North (the Gulf Stream), it starts dumping heat, since it is now closer to the surface and a lot warmer than the surrounding water. This salt water column, then cools off as it crosses south of Greenland, and as it now flows past Europe, it dumps the last of its heat and drops. This drop of so many billions of gallons of water acts as a 'pull' to all of that water behind it, and pushes the water in front of it. As it sinks to the ocean bottom and heads south, it carries nutrients and waste down. In the Southern ocean, even though it's at the bottom of the ocean, it starts picking up heat and starts rising, picking up more heat. And the cycle starts again.
However, if the Southern ocean is cooler, it doesn't pick up as much heat, so the water doesn't rise as fast or as powerfully. When the current finally gets to the coast of the U.S., off of Maine, it is not as warm is it previously was, so it doesn't have as much heat to give off. This leaves the northern hempishpere, and in particular, Europe, cooler, since the prevailing winds aren't picking up as much heat to distribute over Europe.
Now, couple this with the fact that the North Atlantic has more fresh water, and thus a lower salinity, and even though the water cools while going around Greenland, the fresh water is not as heavy as salt water, so it doesn't since as fast. (link to salinity article)So, like a train of a slight hill, vs. a train on a steep hill, it doesn't get going as fast downhill, and this reduces the speed of the current. As the current is reduced, and the water stays away from the bottom, as it gets to the Southern hemisphere, it is warmer than before, and this coupled with the cooler ocean, means that it doesn't warm as much - as a percentage of original temperature, so it won't rise as fast, nor will it rise as far, because it is close to the surface.
Eventually, the roller-coaster track of the current becomes level, thus ending the conveyor. This means that no warm water flows North (or very little) and Europe is subject to the might of the cold blasts from the Arctic.
This is what we are already seeing.
The conveyor, even though you don't hear much about it, is coming to a stop, and it is doing so in a time frame that scientists thought could never be.
Can you say, "Brrrr!"
Sunday, February 20, 2005
Tick-Tock: The clock is running on the H5N1 avian flu.
Tick-tock.
Tick-tock.
The 'authorities' are saying millions, but my science contacts in viral medicine are saying hundreds of millions to billions.
There's another entry in the blog about the H5N1 causing symptoms that look nothing like flu and don't involve the respiratory tract; however, it kills at the 76% rate, anyway.
Good thing GWB cut (reduced) the funding for the CDC for the first time since.. oh... 1946. Guess we don't need no stinkin' science! Just think how much room that will leave for rich people who will, of course, be the first (maybe only) ones to receive any vaccine, assuming they can produce one when H5N1 picks up a good human transmission gene. It's not "IF", it's only "WHEN", and the 'when' is not that far in your future. Viral scientists say we may have dodged the bullet for this go-around, but they aren't saying that we absolutely did; flu season isn't over.
One of the key ways that an flu (and they are all avian in origin) mutates into a human-transmissible form is to mix with a human gene in an animal that can carry both infections, and the main animal that does this is the pig. Thus, this article is of great concern.
(it's on my blog, also, but back a ways. Get the date from the article an you will find it at about the same date on my blog, though I have the original article, and not this quoting of it.)
A little history.
The Spanish flu, in 1918, killed - depending on who is quoting the figure, between 15 and 50 million people, but the generally accepted number is 50 million. If you know your WW I history, you'll know that this flu was the real reason that WW I came to a halt; they simply ran out of people to fight the war. Isn't it interesting that the Armistice with Germany was signed in November of 1918?
In 1918, the world population was 1.8 billion, as of 2-20-2005, the world population is roughly 6.5 billion. Now, if you ramp up the deaths mathematically, you get, based on 40 billion in 1918, 144 million dead. Now, let's take a look at another statistic: the death rate from the Spanish Flu was... are you ready? 2.5% Keep that little number in mind. 2.5%. And it was enough to take 10 years off of the average life span of people in this country for several years.
Now, the accepted death rate, in humans, for the H5N1 flu is 76%. So, if we ramp the 144 million up mathematically, we get 4,392,000,000. That's 4.4 billion.
The fact that we have vaccines now is somewhat of a modifying factor; however, when H5N1 mixes with the human gene that will turn it into a readily transmissible virus, what we think the vaccine will be may not work. Additionally, getting it made takes months, then there is the distribution problem. By the time we get one made and ready to be distributed, it could all be over.
The next fact to consider is that, in 1918, we didn't have the population mixing that we have now. People travel, every day, all over the world. Additionally, lots and lots of them do this either in packed planes or in packed trains, so the transmission rate in those environments is much, much higher. Planes, especially, with their dry air, lend themselves to a majority of people on each aircraft becoming carriers themselves.
The population density in 1918 was also not what it is now. Consequently, if one village - or small town in America - got sick, everyone might either be dead or non-contagious before anyone mixed with someone from elsewhere; that is no longer the case, except in remote parts of the world.
I don't think the 1918 figures ramp up mathematically, I think they ramp geometrically. At first, this looks like everyone on the planet might be dead, but when H5N1 finally becomes human-transmissible, viral scientists don't think the kill rate will be 76% anymore. While it could conceivably go up, it will probably go down; maybe to 50%. Added to that is the situation wherein, once governments are aware that H5N1 is going to have a much bigger impact that predicted, they will shut down aircraft and train transportation (not to mention subways and cruise ships).
It will make the financial impact of 9/11, which was rather large, seem miniscule in comparison.
So why write about all of this? Because, as mentioned above, Bush has reduced the CDC budget. (link) Not only should it not be reduced, it should be increased dramatically, and funding of surveillance programs here and overseas should be ramped up, since the earlier the alarm bells go off, the earlier that vaccine production can start. Lastly, the U.S., like almost all foreign countries, needs to spread out the vaccine manufacturer's it buys from, and it needs to give money to these manufacturers to allow them to expand both facility-wise and research-wise. Some might argue that giving money to French companies - and other companies - isn't what we should be doing, but if this flu is allowed to propagate without companies being able to respond, the money we saved by not funding the research, the monitoring programs, the facility expansions, will pale in comparison to the economic damage this virus could wreak upon the world, not to mention the U.S. And however much we mitigate the damage here, if the world goes down (ie. China) then we all go down.
Global warming is, after H5N1, the most dire problem the world has. Terrorism isn't even in the same league. At least one can fight the flu and global warming, whereas you can't really fight a method of attack. No country in the world has EVER beaten terrorism, without wiping out the entire population from whence the terrorists (or freedom fighters) originated. The only way that terrorism has ever been handled successfully, is by negotiation. Just look at Israel, Spain, South America, etc. etc.
At least we can do something about H5N1, but it will take the people in this country realizing that this is not some 'future' event that may, or may not, happen. They will also need to realize that even if, by some miracle, we kept it out of this country (we couldn't keep SARS out, and it was a MUCH smaller infection problem), the economic consequences will ruin us as it ruins the rest of the world.
So, please take time to write your city, county, state and federal representatives (or lackeys, if you head a large corporation) and ask that they get about the business of preparing us (and the world) to detect it (when, not if, it comes) and be able to respond with appropriate countermeasures.
If we start now, it may not be too late. Then again, we could already be the walking dead, we just don't know it yet.
Can you say, "Ah choo!"?
PS. Oh, yes. With, say, 10% fewer people in the US (and THAT is being generous, since I'm not using the 76% figure), land values WILL - not may - go down. Food prices will go way up. Stocks - don't even ask about stocks, because the stock market is controlled by a bunch of sheep, and once anything happens that's bad, regardless of whether or not it *should* affect the stock market, it goes south - in a hurry. However, it will be a great time to buy! My advice is to sell once the CDC announces the alert (unless you own stock in a company that produces the H5N1 vaccine), and then buy back into your stocks in about 1 month.
An interesting note on the H5N1: the current anti-viral products out there are ineffective against H5N1: from: http://www.pulmonaryreviews.com/may04/pr_may04_avianflu.html - H5N1 has demonstrated resistance to amantadine and rimantadine, and ribavirin was ineffective as well. In the absence of a proven effective treatment, supportive care may be the best treatment option. ** that means that the best they can do for you is give you fluids and aspirin.
Lastly, as the article here shows, there is still a new virus, H7N7, that most people haven't even heard about yet, that, itself, is waiting to pounce on us, much like a tiger on a small mouse.
If you're interested in what the H and N thingies mean, you can check out this PDF document here.
Tick-tock.
The 'authorities' are saying millions, but my science contacts in viral medicine are saying hundreds of millions to billions.
There's another entry in the blog about the H5N1 causing symptoms that look nothing like flu and don't involve the respiratory tract; however, it kills at the 76% rate, anyway.
Good thing GWB cut (reduced) the funding for the CDC for the first time since.. oh... 1946. Guess we don't need no stinkin' science! Just think how much room that will leave for rich people who will, of course, be the first (maybe only) ones to receive any vaccine, assuming they can produce one when H5N1 picks up a good human transmission gene. It's not "IF", it's only "WHEN", and the 'when' is not that far in your future. Viral scientists say we may have dodged the bullet for this go-around, but they aren't saying that we absolutely did; flu season isn't over.
One of the key ways that an flu (and they are all avian in origin) mutates into a human-transmissible form is to mix with a human gene in an animal that can carry both infections, and the main animal that does this is the pig. Thus, this article is of great concern.
(it's on my blog, also, but back a ways. Get the date from the article an you will find it at about the same date on my blog, though I have the original article, and not this quoting of it.)
A little history.
The Spanish flu, in 1918, killed - depending on who is quoting the figure, between 15 and 50 million people, but the generally accepted number is 50 million. If you know your WW I history, you'll know that this flu was the real reason that WW I came to a halt; they simply ran out of people to fight the war. Isn't it interesting that the Armistice with Germany was signed in November of 1918?
In 1918, the world population was 1.8 billion, as of 2-20-2005, the world population is roughly 6.5 billion. Now, if you ramp up the deaths mathematically, you get, based on 40 billion in 1918, 144 million dead. Now, let's take a look at another statistic: the death rate from the Spanish Flu was... are you ready? 2.5% Keep that little number in mind. 2.5%. And it was enough to take 10 years off of the average life span of people in this country for several years.
Now, the accepted death rate, in humans, for the H5N1 flu is 76%. So, if we ramp the 144 million up mathematically, we get 4,392,000,000. That's 4.4 billion.
The fact that we have vaccines now is somewhat of a modifying factor; however, when H5N1 mixes with the human gene that will turn it into a readily transmissible virus, what we think the vaccine will be may not work. Additionally, getting it made takes months, then there is the distribution problem. By the time we get one made and ready to be distributed, it could all be over.
The next fact to consider is that, in 1918, we didn't have the population mixing that we have now. People travel, every day, all over the world. Additionally, lots and lots of them do this either in packed planes or in packed trains, so the transmission rate in those environments is much, much higher. Planes, especially, with their dry air, lend themselves to a majority of people on each aircraft becoming carriers themselves.
The population density in 1918 was also not what it is now. Consequently, if one village - or small town in America - got sick, everyone might either be dead or non-contagious before anyone mixed with someone from elsewhere; that is no longer the case, except in remote parts of the world.
I don't think the 1918 figures ramp up mathematically, I think they ramp geometrically. At first, this looks like everyone on the planet might be dead, but when H5N1 finally becomes human-transmissible, viral scientists don't think the kill rate will be 76% anymore. While it could conceivably go up, it will probably go down; maybe to 50%. Added to that is the situation wherein, once governments are aware that H5N1 is going to have a much bigger impact that predicted, they will shut down aircraft and train transportation (not to mention subways and cruise ships).
It will make the financial impact of 9/11, which was rather large, seem miniscule in comparison.
So why write about all of this? Because, as mentioned above, Bush has reduced the CDC budget. (link) Not only should it not be reduced, it should be increased dramatically, and funding of surveillance programs here and overseas should be ramped up, since the earlier the alarm bells go off, the earlier that vaccine production can start. Lastly, the U.S., like almost all foreign countries, needs to spread out the vaccine manufacturer's it buys from, and it needs to give money to these manufacturers to allow them to expand both facility-wise and research-wise. Some might argue that giving money to French companies - and other companies - isn't what we should be doing, but if this flu is allowed to propagate without companies being able to respond, the money we saved by not funding the research, the monitoring programs, the facility expansions, will pale in comparison to the economic damage this virus could wreak upon the world, not to mention the U.S. And however much we mitigate the damage here, if the world goes down (ie. China) then we all go down.
Global warming is, after H5N1, the most dire problem the world has. Terrorism isn't even in the same league. At least one can fight the flu and global warming, whereas you can't really fight a method of attack. No country in the world has EVER beaten terrorism, without wiping out the entire population from whence the terrorists (or freedom fighters) originated. The only way that terrorism has ever been handled successfully, is by negotiation. Just look at Israel, Spain, South America, etc. etc.
At least we can do something about H5N1, but it will take the people in this country realizing that this is not some 'future' event that may, or may not, happen. They will also need to realize that even if, by some miracle, we kept it out of this country (we couldn't keep SARS out, and it was a MUCH smaller infection problem), the economic consequences will ruin us as it ruins the rest of the world.
So, please take time to write your city, county, state and federal representatives (or lackeys, if you head a large corporation) and ask that they get about the business of preparing us (and the world) to detect it (when, not if, it comes) and be able to respond with appropriate countermeasures.
If we start now, it may not be too late. Then again, we could already be the walking dead, we just don't know it yet.
Can you say, "Ah choo!"?
PS. Oh, yes. With, say, 10% fewer people in the US (and THAT is being generous, since I'm not using the 76% figure), land values WILL - not may - go down. Food prices will go way up. Stocks - don't even ask about stocks, because the stock market is controlled by a bunch of sheep, and once anything happens that's bad, regardless of whether or not it *should* affect the stock market, it goes south - in a hurry. However, it will be a great time to buy! My advice is to sell once the CDC announces the alert (unless you own stock in a company that produces the H5N1 vaccine), and then buy back into your stocks in about 1 month.
An interesting note on the H5N1: the current anti-viral products out there are ineffective against H5N1: from: http://www.pulmonaryreviews.com/may04/pr_may04_avianflu.html - H5N1 has demonstrated resistance to amantadine and rimantadine, and ribavirin was ineffective as well. In the absence of a proven effective treatment, supportive care may be the best treatment option. ** that means that the best they can do for you is give you fluids and aspirin.
Lastly, as the article here shows, there is still a new virus, H7N7, that most people haven't even heard about yet, that, itself, is waiting to pounce on us, much like a tiger on a small mouse.
If you're interested in what the H and N thingies mean, you can check out this PDF document here.
Saturday, February 19, 2005
Friday, February 18, 2005
Brightest Galactic Flash Ever Detected Hits Earth
Imagine a star exploding in the sky and appearing as bright as a full moon. Now imagine that it's, say, Jupiter that does that. It would have to be a pretty big bang to appear so bright when Jupiter is 724 million miles from earth. Now imagine that the star that blew up is 50,000 light years away; that's 300,000,000,000,000,000 miles away. (300 quadrillion miles) In the Gamma ray band, that's how bright it appeared, and it was strong enough to disrupt our upper atmosphere a bit.
The article says that if it had been witin 60 trillion miles of us, it could have caused a mass extinction on earth.
Now, THAT'S a big bang!
The article says that if it had been witin 60 trillion miles of us, it could have caused a mass extinction on earth.
Now, THAT'S a big bang!
Tuesday, February 15, 2005
Air Pollution Damages Babies in Womb -Study
This is no surprise to anyone who follows science, though I'm sure Bush will say that it needs more 'study' - his favorite way of not doing anything. This report just makes the news about mercury from chlorine plants and coal-fired plants harming the unborn just that much more important; not that anything will be done. Bush has put off doing anything for 12 years.
Where are those born-agains who scream about killing the unborn? Is just getting them born the important thing, but in what condition they are born unimportant? It would seem so. Since air pollution - and mercury pollution - cross geographic boundaries around rich neighborhoods, apparently these people don't even care if it's their own kids or grandkids that are being permanently harmed.
So, when these people face their brain-damaged kids in the coming years, and say, "I love you", I guess what they are really saying is: I love you, but not as much as money.
Where are those born-agains who scream about killing the unborn? Is just getting them born the important thing, but in what condition they are born unimportant? It would seem so. Since air pollution - and mercury pollution - cross geographic boundaries around rich neighborhoods, apparently these people don't even care if it's their own kids or grandkids that are being permanently harmed.
So, when these people face their brain-damaged kids in the coming years, and say, "I love you", I guess what they are really saying is: I love you, but not as much as money.
Friday, February 11, 2005
Monday, February 07, 2005
Sunday, February 06, 2005
Global warming changes are here now
It has always been amazing to me that Republicans - and some ignorant Democrats - question global warming. The nay-sayers argue that there isn't any evidence that man is causing it; they say that 1) global warming might not be happening at all or 2) that global warming now is just part of a natural cycle of Earth, but that we will be able to adjust.
They miss - perhaps on purpose - the point that CO2 is the major contributor to global warming (assuming one accepts that it's happening), and that regardless of whether we started it or it is part of Earth's natural cycle, our increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere is contributing to the warming. They ignore the fact that, even if this warming is part of a natural cycle, if we cut back on CO2 emissions, we could at least mitigate the warming.
Since the end of the 1700's, we have increased the CO2 levels in the atmosphere from 280ppm to 370ppm. This level is higher than any time in the past 160,000 years (link)
There is no arguing that CO2 levels have been high during each of the Earth's warming periods in the past, and low during ice ages, so the relationship of CO2 level to global warming is indisputable.
As noted in the article that was linked to just above, just to stabilize CO2 emissions at today's level would require a 60% reduction in emissions. Even so, levels in the upper atmosphere would continue rising for some years, and effects would continue to grow for the next 50 years. And that's if we cut emissions 60% today. That is not going to happen.
As you may have noticed, over the past 10 years (at least), the maximum temperature increase predicted has kept going up, and the time in which that increase would occur has shortened. It is no longer IF we will feel the effects, it is only a question of how bad they will be. In fact, we are feeling the effects now. Glaciers all over the world are melting; some are already gone. Ice at both poles is thinning and breaking up, just witness the B15 iceberg, which is 2500 sq. miles.
What's really amazing to me is that when the Pentagon came out with it's own report on global warming, people (in general) dismissed it. (summary : full report) The report, if you bother to read it, is nothing short of a doomsday scenario that WILL happen; no maybes here. One of the major threats in the report is that the ocean conveyor, which, in our part of the world is known as the Gulf Stream, will slow down or stop; this will (and currently already has) have ever-increasing effects. If you follow one website that I do (link), it has a link to Gulf Stream velocities by week. Over the past year, the link, which changes text to reflect the state of the Gulf Stream, has taken more and more to saying, "strikingly weak". In fact, for the past several months, it has not said anything else.
Also, if you read the news about England, you have noticed that they are getting cooler and that they have been having more storms, and those storms are more violent, and in the past 2 years, this has become the standard.
Climate change is here. The drought in the West, storms over Europe in the winter, blistering heat over Europe in the summer, drought in Australia, etc. etc.
Within the next couple of years, people are going to wake up to what's happening, and that awakening is likely to come in the form of gunshots as countries, and people within those countries, battle of water and food resources.
But until then, Bush will continue to suggest more 'studies', the petroleum industry will continue to propagandize against global warming, just as they are in England. Recently, there was a news article about a group put together by U.S. oil and gas companies to specifically go to England to try and distort the global warming issue enough so as to confuse people and reduce pressure on the respective U.S. companies. Nothing like good ole propaganda.
It seems that some people are more interested in immediate money than they are in the long-term state of the world. As with the coal-fired power plants in the U.S. that convinced Bush to ignore mercury regulation and thus trade immediate profits for the health of our children, these heartless sons of bitches are basically condeming millions - maybe billions - of people to a slow, nasty death.
But then again: they are conservatives and lack any type of compassion. This is what made Bush's first run at the White House so strange; he had to actually come out and say that HIS would be conservatism, but WITH compassion. Umm.... sure.
They miss - perhaps on purpose - the point that CO2 is the major contributor to global warming (assuming one accepts that it's happening), and that regardless of whether we started it or it is part of Earth's natural cycle, our increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere is contributing to the warming. They ignore the fact that, even if this warming is part of a natural cycle, if we cut back on CO2 emissions, we could at least mitigate the warming.
Since the end of the 1700's, we have increased the CO2 levels in the atmosphere from 280ppm to 370ppm. This level is higher than any time in the past 160,000 years (link)
There is no arguing that CO2 levels have been high during each of the Earth's warming periods in the past, and low during ice ages, so the relationship of CO2 level to global warming is indisputable.
As noted in the article that was linked to just above, just to stabilize CO2 emissions at today's level would require a 60% reduction in emissions. Even so, levels in the upper atmosphere would continue rising for some years, and effects would continue to grow for the next 50 years. And that's if we cut emissions 60% today. That is not going to happen.
As you may have noticed, over the past 10 years (at least), the maximum temperature increase predicted has kept going up, and the time in which that increase would occur has shortened. It is no longer IF we will feel the effects, it is only a question of how bad they will be. In fact, we are feeling the effects now. Glaciers all over the world are melting; some are already gone. Ice at both poles is thinning and breaking up, just witness the B15 iceberg, which is 2500 sq. miles.
What's really amazing to me is that when the Pentagon came out with it's own report on global warming, people (in general) dismissed it. (summary : full report) The report, if you bother to read it, is nothing short of a doomsday scenario that WILL happen; no maybes here. One of the major threats in the report is that the ocean conveyor, which, in our part of the world is known as the Gulf Stream, will slow down or stop; this will (and currently already has) have ever-increasing effects. If you follow one website that I do (link), it has a link to Gulf Stream velocities by week. Over the past year, the link, which changes text to reflect the state of the Gulf Stream, has taken more and more to saying, "strikingly weak". In fact, for the past several months, it has not said anything else.
Also, if you read the news about England, you have noticed that they are getting cooler and that they have been having more storms, and those storms are more violent, and in the past 2 years, this has become the standard.
Climate change is here. The drought in the West, storms over Europe in the winter, blistering heat over Europe in the summer, drought in Australia, etc. etc.
Within the next couple of years, people are going to wake up to what's happening, and that awakening is likely to come in the form of gunshots as countries, and people within those countries, battle of water and food resources.
But until then, Bush will continue to suggest more 'studies', the petroleum industry will continue to propagandize against global warming, just as they are in England. Recently, there was a news article about a group put together by U.S. oil and gas companies to specifically go to England to try and distort the global warming issue enough so as to confuse people and reduce pressure on the respective U.S. companies. Nothing like good ole propaganda.
It seems that some people are more interested in immediate money than they are in the long-term state of the world. As with the coal-fired power plants in the U.S. that convinced Bush to ignore mercury regulation and thus trade immediate profits for the health of our children, these heartless sons of bitches are basically condeming millions - maybe billions - of people to a slow, nasty death.
But then again: they are conservatives and lack any type of compassion. This is what made Bush's first run at the White House so strange; he had to actually come out and say that HIS would be conservatism, but WITH compassion. Umm.... sure.
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)